In order to gauge what the business environment will be like in the future, economists and other big picture merchants such as newspaper commentators often look at the key readings on outlook for economic growth and unemployment. However, the small picture, or microeconomic, view of specific industries is often of more relevance to individual small businesses
IBISWorld, founded by respected industry analyst, Phil Ruthven, has looked at, and made predictions about, the future of Aussie industries and businesses for decades.
The organisation’s latest report focused on where the jobs will be found in coming years. This has to be a great indicator of which small businesses will be well-placed to benefit.
No double dip
For the big picture types, IBISWorld doesn’t think there will be a double dip recession. Instead, the crystal ball outfit expects solid growth in the years ahead.
“The fact that December 2009 saw the number of jobless people fall by 13,300 is a sure sign that the Australian economy is on the up, and indicates positive hiring intentions for 2010 and beyond,” said Robert Bryant, the GM of IBISWorld.
So let’s cut to the chase.
Bright future
Organic food production has a bright future with health consciousness and environmental awareness set to drive demand for organic foods. IBISWorld sees revenue growing at an average 13.4 per cent per year to reach around $760 million in 2014.
In a related area, biotechnology businesses look to have a lot of life ahead.
“Australia’s biotechnology sector largely focuses on areas relating to human health and agriculture – both of which are expected to continue to grow over the next five years, as health and the environment remain high on the agenda,” Bryant said.
And despite the question marks over an Emissions Trading Scheme, post-Copenhagen, businesses in related risk management, planning and advisory, and the trading of products linked to carbon credits will make other industries green with envy. There is also money to be made in investment banking and security brokerage, thanks to the brave new green world ahead.
Not surprisingly, businesses servicing the mining sector will be big job creators and while online businesses might not be as great job creators because of labour-saving technology, the sector is set for good growth.
In the soft and cuddly department, childcare and pet therapy both show good growth potential while businesses in the healthcare sector should clean up with an ageing population.
Finally to things monetary and accountants will be in demand and financial services businesses will clean up.
“Prior to 2009-10, growth in demand for finance and investment advice services outpaced the number of qualified staff, leading to a skills shortage,” said Bryant. “As the economy recovers, demand is expected to pick up again, meaning the sector will need additional professionals to service growing demand.”
Be best of breed
Those businesses tipped to find growth harder to come by include image processing, printing, Internet Service Providers, tobacco wholesalers, leather goods businesses, recorded media and publishing.
Also, manufacturers in areas such as food processing, cars, auto parts and even computer and related equipment will not participate as strongly in the boom, IBISWorld is predicting.
These latter businesses will need to be best of breed and performing at world-class standards to make sure they make up for a changing, post-GFC world.
By Peter Switzer
